Southern California

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	118.0
Current RPI:	118
Expected SOS:	30
Current SOS:	30
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	205
Expected OOC SOS:	60

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	118.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	87-73	W	100%
11-13	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	62-44	W	100%
11-19	Illinois (40.0)	B10	N	94-64	L	0%
11-20	Texas (116.0)	B12	N	59-53	W	100%
11-21	Marquette (13.0)	BE	N	64-72	L	0%
11-25	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	60-66	L	0%
12-3	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	63-51	L	0%
12-5	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	75-67	L	0%
12-8	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	H	57-71	L	0%
12-15	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	70-26	W	100%
12-20	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	54-61	L	0%
12-22	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	A	64-56	L	0%
12-30	Dayton (114.0)	A10	H	63-61	W	100%
1-3	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	71-69	W	100%
1-5	California (54.0)	P12	H	64-72	L	0%
1-10	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	66-60	L	0%
1-12	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	59-76	W	100%
1-17	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	74-76	L	0%
1-19	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	69-68	W	100%
1-24	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	98-93	L	0%
1-26	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	74-50	L	0%
1-30	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	71-75	W	100%
2-7	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	72-68	W	100%
2-10	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	71-60	W	100%
2-14	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	64-65	W	100%
2-17	California (54.0)	P12	A	76-68	L	0%
2-24	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	59-75	L	0%
2-27	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	89-78	W	100%
3-2	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	57-56	W	100%
3-6	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	65-57	L	0%
3-9	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	76-51	L	0%
3-13	Utah (161.0)	P12	N	66-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern California	P12	26.17	26.17	40.00	40.00	-5.23	-5.23
UCLA	P12	4.07	4.07	75.00	75.00	2.04	2.04
Arizona St.	P12	3.92	3.92	64.52	64.52	1.14	1.14
Arizona	P12	3.92	3.92	80.00	80.00	2.35	2.35
Utah	P12	3.87	3.87	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
Washington	P12	3.85	3.85	54.84	54.84	0.37	0.37
Stanford	P12	3.83	3.83	60.00	60.00	0.77	0.77
Washington St.	P12	3.82	3.82	40.00	40.00	-0.76	-0.76
California	P12	3.80	3.80	62.07	62.07	0.92	0.92
Oregon	P12	2.46	2.46	75.76	75.76	1.27	1.27
Colorado	P12	2.39	2.39	64.52	64.52	0.69	0.69
Oregon St.	P12	2.32	2.32	45.16	45.16	-0.22	-0.22
Long Beach St.	BW	1.78	1.78	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
UC Irvine	BW	1.74	1.74	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Minnesota	B10	1.73	1.73	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
San Diego St.	MWC	1.73	1.73	65.52	65.52	0.54	0.54
Illinois	B10	1.68	1.68	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Nebraska	B10	1.68	1.68	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
UC Riverside	BW	1.66	1.66	14.81	14.81	-1.17	-1.17
New Mexico	MWC	1.64	1.64	84.85	84.85	1.14	1.14
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.63	1.63	23.33	23.33	-0.87	-0.87
Texas	B12	1.63	1.63	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Dayton	A10	1.59	1.59	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Marquette	BE	1.56	1.56	73.33	73.33	0.73	0.73
Fresno St.	MWC	0.35	0.35	32.14	32.14	-0.12	-0.12
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.30	0.30	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.28	0.28	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.25	0.25	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Pacific	BW	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.22	0.22	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Ohio St.	B10	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
UC Davis	BW	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Indiana	B10	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Denver	WAC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01